Bloomberg : Bank of England : Standard & Poor

Pound Falls, Yen Rises on Speculation Credit Losses Spreading

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- The pound fell and the yen advanced on speculation spreading credit market losses at banks will result in slower economic growth and discourage policy makers from raising interest rates.

Sterling dropped the most in more than three weeks versus the dollar after Bradford & Bingley Plc, the U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender to landlords, said it will sell shares at a 33 percent discount. The yen rose against all of the major currencies as a decline in European and U.S. stocks eroded demand for higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.

``Risk aversion is filtering into the market again,'' said Matthew Strauss, a senior currency strategist in Toronto at RBC Capital Markets Inc., a unit of Canada's biggest bank by assets. ``Even though the worst of the financial crisis may be behind us, the recovery won't be a smooth ride. It's clearly weighing on the pound.''

The pound dropped 0.9 percent to $1.9637 at 10:46 a.m. in New York, from $1.9823 on May 30. It fell 0.7 percent to 79.05 pence per euro, from 78.47 pence. The yen strengthened 1.8 percent to 205.45 per pound, from 209.16. Japan's currency rose 1.1 percent to 162.40 per euro, from 164.15, and gained 0.9 percent to 104.62 per dollar, from 105.52

The U.S. currency rose against the euro as crude oil fell 1.3 percent to $125.72 a barrel, easing concern high commodity prices will reduce U.S. consumer spending. Crude reached a record high of $135.09 on May 22.

U.S. Factories

The dollar remained higher versus the 15-nation currency after the Institute for Supply Management's factory index increased to 49.6 in May, from 48.6 in the previous month. The median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a decrease to 48.5. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

``If you're looking for signs of a deep outright recession, you're not able to find it in this report,'' said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. ``I would advise people to buy the dollar on dips and sell the euro on a rally of $1.56-$1.57.''

The dollar strengthened 0.2 percent to $1.5524 per euro, compared with $1.5554 on May 30.

The pound weakened after Bradford & Bingley Chief Executive Officer Stephen Crawshaw quit yesterday, citing health reasons. TPG Inc., a leveraged buyout firm, is in talks to buy a 20 percent stake in the mortgage lender. The bank plans to raise an additional 250 million pounds ($490 million) from shareholders.

``The magnitude of this took the market by surprise,'' said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. ``The pound remains vulnerable.''

Bank of England

The Bank of England will keep its benchmark interest rate at 5 percent on June 5, according to the median forecast of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Policy makers have lowered the rate three times by a total of 0.75 percentage point since December.

The yen increased 2.4 percent to 13.5289 against the South African rand and 1.4 percent to 20.3804 versus Norway's krone on speculation a plunge of as much as 32 percent in Bradford & Bingley's shares will discourage the carry trade. In such a trade, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and purchase assets where returns are higher. Japan's target lending rate of 0.5 percent compares with 11.50 percent in South Africa and 5.5 percent in Norway.

European stocks fell for the first time in four days, pushing the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index down 1.1 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 1 percent.

`Greater Concern'

``We're seeing overall a fairly consistent response to a drop in risk appetite, and the catalyst is greater concern about the outlook for the financial sector,'' said Steve Pearson, chief currency strategist at HBOS Treasury Services Plc in London. ``People are worried about banks' ability to raise the capital they need. The yen is going to outperform at the expense of higher yielders.'' The yen may rise to 203 against the pound and 103 per dollar this week, Pearson forecast.

The U.S. currency may be supported as pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies bought more dollars than they've sold this year, according to State Street Corp. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the largest money managers for institutions. The dollar gained in 71 percent of the quarters over the past decade when they were net buyers, according to Boston-based State Street.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 98 percent chance the Federal Reserve will keep its target rate at 2 percent when it next meets on June 25. That compares with 90 percent odds a week earlier. The balance of bets was for a cut of a quarter-percentage point. The central bank has reduced rates seven times since September.